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Trump Anomaly -- Derivation

February 7, 2016
Revised May 4, 2016 following Indiana primary.


 
Several of my comments in the New York Times are inspired by this mental model…

Suppose that nationwide participants in the GOP primaries for POTUS are quite firmly committed to two categories: Trump Voters and Anti-Trump Voters (not to be confused with ‘base’ and ‘establishment’, respectively).

The model makes five assumptions…

 

1.     that there were 17 GOP candidates at the beginning of the primaries including Donald J. Trump;

2.     that through attrition-of-outliers, there will only be two candidates at the GOP convention;

The winnowing process results from various factors not addressed in the model, including relative debate performances, primary results, and financial support. 

3.     that, based on some number of national polls, Trump’s leadership position is more or less constant between, say, 35% and 42% among popular voters all the way to the convention;

This assumption allows for mind-changing throughout the primary season by voters in both categories – but in approximately equal amounts for either direction.

4.     that the remainder of the popular votes (between 75% and 65% in the polls) continue to favor Anti-Trump candidates;

5.     that Anti-Trump opinions are distributed among the Anti-Trump candidates in such a way that the median popularity for each Anti-Trump candidate is close to the average as calculated by simple division.

 

Results from the model predict that Donald J. Trump will not win the GOP nomination for the 2016 election of POTUS based on public opinion polls.  Indeed, that game will be over when there are only three or four candidates.

 




Cumulative Results following Indiana Primary



Anti-Trump Cum-

Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich ulative
Popular Votes 10.6 7.3 3.5 3.8 25.2 millions
  42.1% 57.9% 100.0%
Delegates 1,055 564 172 154 1,945
  54.2% 45.8% 100.0%

 

Reminder: The Trump Anomaly model is based on popular votes only -- and may continue to predict the elimination of Trump right up to the GOP convention based on the popular vote. 
It is worrisome in a democracy to watch the delegate counts diverge from the popular votes in the primaries so far.  We are witnessing a ‘winner-take-all’ effect by district even in states that are ostensible using a ‘proportional’ delegate selection system.
Question:  How many Anti-Trump voters have Donald Trump as their ‘second’ choice, such that as their chosen Anti-Trump candidates drop out, they will shift to Trump in their respective primaries?
Only if that shift emerges in large numbers will ‘one-man/woman-one-vote’ democracy be seen to prevail at the GOP convention.



Model for the graph above...
M = (100 - T) / (n - 1) - T
Where...
M = percentage margin in favor of the median Anti-Trump candidates
T = percentage of Trump voters in polls at any point during the 2016 primaries
n = number of GOP primary candidates for POTUS including Trump

rainbow-line

R
ésolution de Niquette pour 2016

Essayant de changer le monde, une idée à la fois.
Trying to change the world, one idea at a time.

Candle

 

 


 

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